Doubling Down on a Bearish Tech Call

Published on
January 25th, 2019
Duration
13 minutes


Doubling Down on a Bearish Tech Call

Trade Ideas ·
Featuring David Keller

Published on: January 25th, 2019 • Duration: 13 minutes

David Keller, CMT, president of Sierra Alpha Research joins Real Vision to revisit his bearish thesis on the tech sector. After nailing the recent price action over the holidays, Dave reviews the call and updates his outlook, in this interview with Brian Price. Filmed on January 23, 2019.

Comments

  • KC
    Kenneth C.
    30 January 2019 @ 20:18
    It appears you are playing a retracement to support more or less and if it continues to punch downwards, trend is resumed and we'd probably this same pattern repeated in other growth oriented themed sectors (my words). I had to go looking for it, the historic spread between the russell 1000 growth and value, and are you looking potentially looking a growth to value transition? Tony Greer made an observation of this transition and made a poignant point that we don't see transitions without a catalyst. Scares the hell out of me. Look forward to seeing you again here at RV. FYI, I'm looking at PnF charts in regards to my statement of you playing it to support.
  • GR
    George R.
    29 January 2019 @ 11:35
    From what I can see having been a RV subscriber, none of the technicians have discussed volume at price levels or volume profile. Robin Mesch is the authority on this (Robin Mesch Associates) and I would encourage RV to make contact with her. David will know her as they will have crossed paths from his Fidelity days. The S&P in particular is currently drawing a volume profile which RV viewers ought to know about and Robin would be great candidate to explain this to our community.
  • DW
    Daniel W.
    27 January 2019 @ 23:59
    very realistic and seems quite accurate. this guy seems honest in his view, unlike many here just talking their book.
  • RI
    R I.
    26 January 2019 @ 12:24
    Google is not in XLK. It’s mainly MSFT.
    • DK
      David K.
      26 January 2019 @ 17:14
      Absolutely correct R I. Hard to break old habits and I still think of GOOGL/FB/etc as part of tech. I should probably go ahead and call it Alphabet too! Still think it's a fair indication and if GOOGL breaks that key 1000 level, I'd expect the XLK to follow suit. Nice catch!
  • DR
    David R.
    25 January 2019 @ 21:06
    Thumbs up for a very good presentation. But the bear market rally is the consensus trade for US stocks. Sentiment is very bearish beyond the short-term. Cyclical analysis supplementing my EW work (alt count) suggests that stocks are on track for record highs and USD will weaken. Like today where big gains of US stocks are totally offset by a symmetric plunge in the dollar, again. Also, to follow up on the 6-min mark, I've read that the Fed (Powell) is now deciding to end its liquidity drain (QT) program. The abrupt shocking reversal in Fed policy for interest rate hikes and reduction of their bloated balance sheet is bearish for USD and bullish for US stocks, at least in nominal terms if not real terms. Select international stocks and PM could be the biggest winners. These government central bank hacks at the Fed know nothing about trading and markets, and predictably they keep resorting to blowing bigger credit/debt/market bubbles. They'll keep doing blowing bubbles until it ends catastrophically, the worst in a millennium.
    • DK
      David K.
      26 January 2019 @ 17:16
      Thanks for the comment David. You make a ton of very valid points. I've found that the technicals tend to lead, and fundamentals tend to lag. To put another way- a stock/group/sector will break out/down and the fundamental reasons/explanations tend to become clearer after the fact. Follow the charts! Thanks for the comment- Dave