Lower Rates, Higher Dollar?

Published on
July 15th, 2019
Duration
14 minutes


Lower Rates, Higher Dollar?

Trade Ideas ·
Featuring Joseph Trevisani

Published on: July 15th, 2019 • Duration: 14 minutes

Joseph Trevisani, senior analyst at FXStreet, reflects on Jerome Powell’s recent testimony to congress and discusses what traders should expect at the next FOMC meeting. He notes the current issues with the Phillips curve, explains how other central banks could react to a dovish Fed, and reviews why the euro should weaken by the end of the year, in this interview with Jake Merl. Filmed on July 12, 2019.

Comments

Transcript

  • KA
    Koka A.
    17 July 2019 @ 14:29
    I would suggest different scenario. Do not think that Draghi will move much before his leave and will prepare stage for Lagarde. With Fed cutting once (or more) and being more dovish till the end of the year (for sure), I think EURUSD will go up or at least sideways. Of course if there are no unexpected shocks meanwhile. After Lagarde takes stage, EUR down all the way.
  • EC
    Earl C.
    16 July 2019 @ 05:06
    He did an excellent job of connecting some dots I had been thinking about. However I strongly disagree in regards to workers not seeing price inflation. With a hot summer, window unit AC's are way up double digits in price from just approximately 2 years ago. Most appliance's, dish waters for sure, insurance, theft from unemployed drug addicts in many areas, local tax & licence fees, tolls increases etc. I am not convinced that wages are really keeping up.
  • DF
    Daniel F.
    15 July 2019 @ 09:31
    That's a 200+ pips stoploss. I'd love to know how Mr. Trevisani manages the risk in the trade. Do you sort-of DCA your way into the trade? Just enter in one block and wait? Thanks to anyone in advance for providing some kind of guidance as I'm not the most experienced person out there in the markets.
    • MT
      Mike T.
      15 July 2019 @ 10:39
      Some guidance? Well my $0.02 if very new to making your own investing and trading decisions, your question about using stop losses leads, managing risk etc leads me to suggest stop what you're doing right now change course and devote your time to start learning about Option Markets. Immerse yourself in the subject for an initial three months, at which point you'll start to achieve a basic appreciation of why it's necessary to embark on even more work over the longer term getting to grips with the subject. To provide some context whilst everyone learns at different speeds, I believe to get beyond 'beginner' stage with Options takes on average 2 years of daily effort. I stopped using technical analysis, newsletters, trying to find reasons why XYZ was happening in the markets and turning to using/learning Options in a meanful way approaching 18 months. There's not the space here to outline the multiple benefits of using Options to trade, but at the risk of being 'flamed' I'll offer the following as a starter: 1./ Options provide the most efficient way to deploy your capital. 2./ Options provide a mathematical/quant based method of determining the risk in a position and the maths based probabilities of making/losing money 3./ the ability to interpret price action in option markets, provide an optimal way of identifying opportunities. 4./ I believe the ability to make use of the full range of different Options strategies, allows one to be self-sufficient in decision making i.e. no more subscription based newsletters, no more technical analysis to spot opportunity, no more looking for narratives on why x y z is happening in the market.
  • MT
    Mike T.
    15 July 2019 @ 09:08
    for me many of the Trade Ideas series are of questionable value, but I always like to check out this guys material. I certainly appreciate Mr Trevisani's thought process with this one. However a call of 1.07/1.05 for EUR is a bold call, when the options market for /6E is pricing in 3% probabilty of getting to 1.07 in the Dec 6 cycle, and 4% probabity in the March 6, 2020 cycle.
    • DF
      Daniel F.
      15 July 2019 @ 09:33
      I suppose market is pricing for ECB to hold rates steady while the Feds start to cut (?)
    • tr
      tom r.
      16 July 2019 @ 19:18
      AOC said something intelligent, we best all write that down as it may never again happen.