Making Sense of This Market

Published on
October 26th, 2018
Topic
Equities, Volatility, Macro
Duration
15 minutes
Asset class
Equities

Making Sense of This Market

Trade Ideas ·
Featuring Tony Greer

Published on: October 26th, 2018 • Duration: 15 minutes • Asset Class: Equities • Topic: Equities, Volatility, Macro

Are we in a new volatility regime? Tony Greer, founder of TG Macro, reviews the current market dynamics and the rapidly changing macro environment. He explains why he sees potential for a further breakdown in the S&P, and discusses the sectors he thinks will outperform, in this interview with Justine Underhill. Filmed on October 24, 2018.

Comments

  • sB
    sylvain B.
    29 October 2018 @ 04:18
    As always interesting insights by Tony. His EM short in the last interview was very timely
  • AG
    Alexander G.
    28 October 2018 @ 13:25
    "I want to establish myself as a comfortable expert" LOL
  • MS
    Marcio S.
    27 October 2018 @ 15:28
    I think it is an interesting interview, but the small cap and emerging market stocks have led on the way down and current market uncertainty has to do with questioning growth US Tech names. Without a doubt big growth names breaking down will drive market lower, but I actually think they may underperform on the way down Em.Mkt stocks and even certain small cap sectors... Interesting call on Energy Names...
  • DS
    David S.
    27 October 2018 @ 05:17
    The president yelling at the Fed is a red herring to deflect from a major problem with the US economy i.e., the trade war and tariffs. In addition, the Fed must maintain raising rates to attract as much money as possible to make $US bonds more attractive to cover rapidly rising US deficits. China cannot buy US bonds because of its own problems and the trade war. Tariffs and trade wars will be a major determinant of 2019 corporate profits. I do not see a recession, just lower revenues, profits and P/Es. DLS
  • NI
    Nate I.
    27 October 2018 @ 03:44
    Tony - please read section 10.2 of the Federal Reserve Act (https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/section10.htm) President Trump cannot fire Powell except for "cause" (that term is undefined but the Supreme Court has set a high bar in past cases). I doubt SCOTUS would hold that failure to keep rates at insanely low levels from a historic perspective would qualify for "cause". More importantly, Trump's advisors would explain this and I doubt he would want the political circus that would ensue from trying to fire Powell. No Fed chair has ever been removed by a President although McCabe did resign over his clash with Truman after the Treasury-Fed Accord was hammered out in 1951.
    • DS
      David S.
      27 October 2018 @ 05:02
      Nate I. Thanks for the information. DLS
    • TG
      Tony G. | Contributor
      28 October 2018 @ 19:22
      Thanks. I was just trying to contrast the crazy opinion that Trump might fire Powell.
    • DR
      David R.
      28 October 2018 @ 21:13
      Good info. Does compromising "national security" constitute cause? Turmp has (ab)used Nat Security as a reason time and again already. In big corps, if you compromise corp security in any way, it is typically a basis for immediate dismissal per the employment contract.
    • DS
      David S.
      29 October 2018 @ 19:15
      David R. - US national security is compromised by the rising US national debt. The Fed needs to attract as many bond buyers as possible as China is no longer buying and US bond requirements are rising sharply. The Fed does not control the long-term bond market, but the long-term bond market may start to control the Fed. DLS
  • DS
    David S.
    27 October 2018 @ 02:54
    IMHO the market is finally forecasting problems in 2019 corporate profits because of a strong dollar, trade war dislocations, tariff payments that may not be passed through, higher interest rates, major increase in US debt financing and less Chinese US bond purchases. (China will need its $US to bail itself out.) I do not see a recession, but lower $US revenues and profits for the above reasons. My long-term guess on the US economy is slow growth for years. I have a cannabis trade and will investigate energy stocks. Most of my few dollars are in cash, cash equivalents and gold – no ETFs. DLS
  • IF
    Ian F.
    26 October 2018 @ 17:09
    TG - Thank you for explaining what Trump's tariffs actually are!! These morons on RV and CNBC keep touting the "everyone loses in a trade war" bullshit line. These people shouldn't be let anywhere near other people's money!
    • DS
      David S.
      27 October 2018 @ 02:24
      Short term maybe good for mid-terms. Long term both side will lose. How much is to be determined. DLS
    • IF
      Ian F.
      27 October 2018 @ 17:41
      David - The US had implemented tariffs for 150 years, during which time the world saw the greatest economic industrialization of any nation ever. (Until perhaps China which clearly is also implementing this policy). What we understood then was Tariffs = capital formation = productivity and productivity = the ability to pay labor more, self fulfilling. Any wonder why productivity has been 1% or less since Reagan and wages haven’t fared any better? We could just keep touting the bullshit line about the consumer paying more with tariffs, like “you can keep your doctor” Obama line until everyone believes it. Or we could look at the facts and history to come to a conclusion.
    • DS
      David S.
      27 October 2018 @ 18:30
      Ian F. I agree that tariffs can be productive when enacted thoughtfully. These tariffs were an impulsive scheme to start a trade war, promote American isolationism, and a surrogate boarder tax which congress would not pass. DLS
    • TG
      Tony G. | Contributor
      28 October 2018 @ 19:22
      hahaha I agree and you're welcome.
    • DS
      David S.
      29 October 2018 @ 07:41
      Tony G. Please state what you actually agree with. Thanks, DLS
  • DP
    Devraj P.
    26 October 2018 @ 14:41
    Perfect timing and a great deal of information 👍
  • ag
    amin g.
    26 October 2018 @ 14:29
    Tony, would the idea that the EM going down due to a rate hike and a stronger dollar has led the correction in that market over the US equity market , and any fall in the US markets will now not be matched with the same pace of correction in EM? Basically the US plays catch up and Em " basing out."
  • FC
    Frank C. | Contributor
    26 October 2018 @ 11:48
    Nice job, TG.
    • TG
      Tony G. | Contributor
      28 October 2018 @ 19:23
      Thanks Pal.
  • OS
    Oliver S.
    26 October 2018 @ 09:40
    A useful, and timely, review.
    • TG
      Tony G. | Contributor
      28 October 2018 @ 19:23
      Thanks Oliver.

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