Making Sense of This Market

Featuring Tony Greer

Are we in a new volatility regime? Tony Greer, founder of TG Macro, reviews the current market dynamics and the rapidly changing macro environment. He explains why he sees potential for a further breakdown in the S&P, and discusses the sectors he thinks will outperform, in this interview with Justine Underhill. Filmed on October 24, 2018.

Published on
26 October, 2018
Topic
Equities, Volatility, Macro
Duration
15 minutes
Asset class
Equities
Rating
24

Comments

  • sB

    sylvain B.

    29 10 2018 04:18

    1       0

    As always interesting insights by Tony. His EM short in the last interview was very timely

  • AG

    Alexander G.

    28 10 2018 13:25

    5       2

    "I want to establish myself as a comfortable expert" LOL

  • MS

    Marcio S.

    27 10 2018 15:28

    0       0

    I think it is an interesting interview, but the small cap and emerging market stocks have led on the way down and current market uncertainty has to do with questioning growth US Tech names.
    Without a doubt big growth names breaking down will drive market lower, but I actually think they may underperform on the way down Em.Mkt stocks and even certain small cap sectors...
    Interesting call on Energy Names...

  • DS

    David S.

    27 10 2018 05:17

    6       0

    The president yelling at the Fed is a red herring to deflect from a major problem with the US economy i.e., the trade war and tariffs. In addition, the Fed must maintain raising rates to attract as much money as possible to make $US bonds more attractive to cover rapidly rising US deficits. China cannot buy US bonds because of its own problems and the trade war. Tariffs and trade wars will be a major determinant of 2019 corporate profits. I do not see a recession, just lower revenues, profits and P/Es. DLS

  • NI

    Nate I.

    27 10 2018 03:44

    11       0

    Tony - please read section 10.2 of the Federal Reserve Act (https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/section10.htm)

    President Trump cannot fire Powell except for "cause" (that term is undefined but the Supreme Court has set a high bar in past cases). I doubt SCOTUS would hold that failure to keep rates at insanely low levels from a historic perspective would qualify for "cause". More importantly, Trump's advisors would explain this and I doubt he would want the political circus that would ensue from trying to fire Powell.

    No Fed chair has ever been removed by a President although McCabe did resign over his clash with Truman after the Treasury-Fed Accord was hammered out in 1951.

  • DS

    David S.

    27 10 2018 02:54

    1       0

    IMHO the market is finally forecasting problems in 2019 corporate profits because of a strong dollar, trade war dislocations, tariff payments that may not be passed through, higher interest rates, major increase in US debt financing and less Chinese US bond purchases. (China will need its $US to bail itself out.) I do not see a recession, but lower $US revenues and profits for the above reasons. My long-term guess on the US economy is slow growth for years. I have a cannabis trade and will investigate energy stocks. Most of my few dollars are in cash, cash equivalents and gold – no ETFs. DLS

  • IF

    Ian F.

    26 10 2018 17:09

    6       10

    TG - Thank you for explaining what Trump's tariffs actually are!! These morons on RV and CNBC keep touting the "everyone loses in a trade war" bullshit line. These people shouldn't be let anywhere near other people's money!

  • DP

    Devraj P.

    26 10 2018 14:41

    2       0

    Perfect timing and a great deal of information 👍

  • ag

    amin g.

    26 10 2018 14:29

    0       0

    Tony, would the idea that the EM going down due to a rate hike and a stronger dollar has led the correction in that market over the US equity market , and any fall in the US markets will now not be matched with the same pace of correction in EM? Basically the US plays catch up and Em " basing out."

  • FC

    Frank C.

    26 10 2018 11:48

    2       0

    Nice job, TG.

  • OS

    Oliver S.

    26 10 2018 09:40

    5       1

    A useful, and timely, review.