Prepare for the Bear

Published on
September 4th, 2018
Duration
15 minutes


Prepare for the Bear

Trade Ideas ·
Featuring Thomas Thornton

Published on: September 4th, 2018 • Duration: 15 minutes

Thomas Thornton, founder of Hedge Fund Telemetry, reveals the five market themes he sees driving equities lower in the near-term. He highlights three ways to trade a market fallout, and explains why his long-term bearish thesis will finally start to unfold in this interview with Justine Underhill. Filmed on August 30, 2018.

Comments

  • CT
    Christopher T.
    9 September 2018 @ 17:01
    I vividly recall him going on the record claiming that the market made its highs for the year in January, despite the overwhelming weight of the evidence pointing to the contrary. Tommy has been bearish for a long time, and his trade idea P/L reflects his bias. A great way to lose money is by shorting uptrends, market all time highs is not bearish!
    • MS
      Mark S.
      13 November 2018 @ 15:41
      Have to admit this trade worked out very nicely. Probably had to go a bit further than a month to maximize profits, but overall very nice call here by Tom. Chris, remember to give credit when it's due, not just to pan a guys failed trades. It's up to you (the viewer) whether you agree or not with the presenters thesis and want to put on their trade idea. Nobody bats a thousand, and in the end we want to hear as many trade ideas as possible. If we pound on guests too harshly, then maybe they decide not to appear on RV with their next trade idea.
  • CS
    Christopher S.
    6 September 2018 @ 10:44
    If you want to short short the crappy stocks like Tesla, Facebook, Alibaba...why try and top pick on whole index or short the good stocks like Amazon or Google?
  • PD
    Peter D.
    5 September 2018 @ 10:22
    Two thumbs up for Justine! She is really growing into the RV interviewer role and she provides a great anchor amidst all these new faces; many of which a lot of us are seeing for the first ti
    • CE
      Carol E.
      5 September 2018 @ 15:26
      I would have preferred someone else as the RV interviewer.
  • AC
    Andrew C.
    5 September 2018 @ 03:23
    Thomas, 10-to-1 is very interesting; however I am after clarification on the timing, too. Is it a calm before the storm of November elections? Might the November spreads be better, even though the payoff is lower at 7 - to - 1 on the SPY?
    • TT
      Tommy T. | Contributor
      6 September 2018 @ 16:27
      I specifically chose October with the bullish sentiment at extreme levels, many DeMark upside signals triggering across the board on every major US index, knowledge of the low liquidity levels (like late January early February) and super low VIX.
  • JB
    James B.
    4 September 2018 @ 18:59
    Doesn't he mean QQQ OCT 175/160 Put spread?
  • MC
    Minum C.
    4 September 2018 @ 18:17
    Tom's service is well worth the price.
  • NG
    Nick G.
    4 September 2018 @ 16:49
    Oh, s**t. He agrees with my analysis completely. We must both be wrong :(
  • AL
    Andrew L.
    4 September 2018 @ 11:15
    Inch your way in for sure. Betting on a change in direction in this market is very hard to get right but a 10 to 1 payout is nice. The catalysts are not convincing me right now is the time. Of course August is a dead-zone in market activity as everyone is on vacation so Sept is when we expect to see meaningful movements as managers come back and reposition after doing some reading on the beach. The thinning of the attribution of index gains to a few mega-stocks is a very solid insight. Id like to see a chart of this metric going back a few decades, could be telling.
    • NF
      N. F.
      5 September 2018 @ 14:24
      Not sure about the "hotly debated" label - 10 thumbs-up vs 0 thumbs-down is the exact opposite of debate, it's unanimous agreement. If there were high votes roughly equally split that would be a hot debate.