Episode Four – Travels: France – La Question, Frexit?

Featuring Jeremy Ghez, Thanh-Long Huynh, Samuel Gruen

Jawad Mian, takes the globetrotting Travels Series to Paris, to gauge the desire for Frexit, ahead of the finely balanced presidential election. In Episode 4, the renowned macro strategist draws conclusions from his discussions with QuantCube’s Thanh-Long Huynh, economics professor Jeremy Ghez and fund manager Samuel Gruen from Lightfield Capital. Filmed on April 25, 2017, in Paris.

Published on
5 May, 2017
Topic
Europe, Politics
Duration
40 minutes
Asset class
Equities, Bonds/Rates/Credit, Currencies
Rating
60

Comments

  • DS

    David S.

    9 5 2017 05:35

    0       0

    Greece has not been in an armed conflict, but many Greeks probably feel that they are in a never ending economic war that may be worse. This is true, of course, in many different parts of the EEC. It is also true in the USA where the rich are getting richer and the poor may lose their health care. Balancing capitalism and a social net can solve many problems, but it takes a lot of hard work and respect from our representatives and citizens. DLS

  • PD

    Peter D.

    8 5 2017 11:19

    2       0

    Jawad's first interviewee called the French election results (a Macron landslide) perfectly. Reading MSM you would have thought the results were close and that L:e Pen would win. Nice work, again, Jawad.

  • JC

    James C.

    7 5 2017 14:58

    4       0

    I switched off when the guy said that Macron was revolutionary and non-establishment.

    • DP

      David P.

      7 5 2017 23:02

      3       0

      Actually, he's probably the first politician to advocate against statism, very unusual for France (especially for a left leaning man, even if he is centrist for France), and he comes from the private sector where he has been successful, very unusual as well in France where most elected officials are career politicians.
      Le Pen, on the other hand is a career politician, has never been successful in the private sector and comes from a dynasty and never had to work that hard for her money.
      It was therefore very different from the US election in the first place.

    • SG

      Samuel G.

      8 5 2017 07:31

      1       0

      I'm afraid he's been appealing to what people in France wanted to hear but I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt before I form final judgment on the guy. He does come out of the "serail", so calling him non-establishment is a bit far fetched. Anyways, we'll get a whiff of what his presidency will be like when he announces his pick for PM.

  • SS

    Steven S.

    7 5 2017 09:35

    0       0

    they teach in emergency radio management to slow down what your saying so other people understand what your saying.

    • SS

      Steven S.

      7 5 2017 09:39

      0       1

      the rich are getting richer and the poor are getting poorer.

  • AH

    Andreas H.

    7 5 2017 08:07

    1       0

    By the way to say it is not the EUs success, that there is (basically) peace in Europe since 1945 is plain nuts. The friendship between Germany and Fance is key, also the friendship between Germany and the US. Not a big EU Fan, it needs to be redone, but the base is o.k.

  • AH

    Andreas H.

    7 5 2017 07:52

    4       0

    I love it, Jawan is one of the best! Just have a look back to his Feb 2016 bull call against 95% of bears here. He is free from group think, and that is a very rare abilitiy!

  • jm

    jim m.

    6 5 2017 22:54

    6       0

    One great aspect of Jawan's interviewing style is that he is quicker than other interviewers to formulate questions, which allows the interviewee a higher % of time.

  • VS

    Victor S.

    6 5 2017 22:09

    3       0

    I gave the interviews a thumbs down but thought highly of Jawad's comments. The people commenting really gave a "man in the street "kind of answer -nothing close to sophisticated. To say the EU is strong without saying that Draghi is printing paper at 60 billion euro a month down 20 billion in April and WHAT THE COSTS ARE FOR THIS "STIMULAS" is giving causes without consequences?! Means nothing.

  • LV

    Luís V.

    6 5 2017 21:35

    2       0

    I appreciate the travel postcard concept. But, like real (and old) postcards there is not much space to write. This postcard from France looks like its seen from the outside (from US centric view), and with dated categories to analyze a reality that´s changing with multiple and conflicting pressures.
    Let´s not forget that the issues the EU project and european countries face are not simple wiped way with some deals done bilaterally (France-Germany, i.e. or any other) on the continent level.
    Take the immigration issues, the youth unemployment, wages stagnating for the most part of populace (but especially the middle class), high taxes and slow to dead GDP growth (see Italy since euro project began, as an example). And on top of that the tectonic tensions that ravage the continent underneath.
    So, reality aside, Jawed´s piece is a postcard. And to be fair, Jawed said (at the very last minutes) that there are some challenges and clouds ahead.

  • VK

    Viresh K.

    5 5 2017 23:15

    10       0

    People are getting too emotional with their comments. Jawad's interviews were insightful in showing the French establishments views of what is going on.

    • VK

      Viresh K.

      7 5 2017 18:50

      0       0

      The guy from lightfield capital was extremely good. Thoughtful and provided actionable advice based on clear rationale.

  • MM

    Michael M.

    5 5 2017 22:36

    11       0

    I like Jawad a lot, but this was not his best piece for RV. As many others have noted, the real issues in france and europe - replacement level migration, death bed demography, hostile elites -
    were all glossed over if mentioned at all. Pippa's piece with Charles Gave was much better and not just because I agreed with him. It was more substantive and realistic about the real cycles of history and our position in the current one.

  • RD

    RP D.

    5 5 2017 22:10

    3       0

    #IYI

  • Sv

    Sid v.

    5 5 2017 20:32

    8       1

    Jeremy is the perfect example of noise. useless. Look, the French election is not really very important. Unlike brexit it is a foregone conclusion that Le Pen will not win, and the French will vote for more welfare and no courage to move into the future as a nation. They are a land of permanent bureaucrats, everyone works for the government in one way or another.

  • PU

    Peter U.

    5 5 2017 19:46

    1       1

    I agree with Tukasz W.

    The people interviewed were mediocre at best. Content was mediocre at best, with particularly high levels of disappointment with Jeremy Ghez.

  • JG

    John G.

    5 5 2017 19:05

    3       0

    Excellent interviews, Jawad! The insights of your guests were very valuable leading up to the French election results.

  • NH

    Neil H.

    5 5 2017 18:58

    3       0

    Jawad's interviews are some of the best on realvision. not sure what others commented about but I got a lot of insight from this piece.

  • LN

    Lucy N.

    5 5 2017 18:47

    2       0

    This was one sided

  • DS

    David S.

    5 5 2017 18:24

    3       0

    There were no idiots in this interview. Check out the Francois de La Rochefoucauld quote. All were intelligent and expressing their opinions.

  • DS

    David S.

    5 5 2017 18:11

    6       0

    I listen to an interview to learn other perspectives, not to confirm my opinions. How Mr. Thanh-Long Huynh tracks big data on social media is very interesting. He will of course, miss all the people not on social media. Since he called Brexit and Trump his batting record is better than mine. I feel the French election may be closer, but we will find out on Monday.

  • DS

    David S.

    5 5 2017 17:54

    2       2

    I look forward to Jawad's interviews. His perspective is a combination of North American and Middle Eastern. I wish the effect of fear, especially concerning long-term legal and illegal immigration, in the French election could have been addressed. For good or bad, I feel that fear was the deciding marginal factor in Brexit and Trump’s election.

  • LA

    Linda A.

    5 5 2017 17:37

    3       3

    Very good interview Jawad! U ask all the right questions. A Macron win is anticipated by the majority. It is a hard vote as I would not trust the current establishment who allowed numerous terrorist shootings, but then LePen is too restrictive with not allowing Muslims to honor their customs. Change is needed but I guess change is also scary.

  • RM

    Richard M.

    5 5 2017 15:42

    14       0

    I am a huge fan of Jawad's Travel Series (and think he is an excellent interviewer), really enjoy his pieces. Although I'm stilling wondering what ever happened to the last segment of his U.S. trip, he was leaving R.P. Eddy down in southern California and heading to San Fran (maybe to interview John Burbank???) but that segment never made it to air. What's up with that???

  • MS

    Matt S.

    5 5 2017 15:30

    10       9

    What this idiot doesn't seem to grasp is that this time, the communists and the bourgeoisie, are one and the same. The so-called "extreme right" are not extreme at all, they are normal and sensible people and can see through the murky waters to what lies beneath. Unlike the left, they do not have their eyes wide shut to what is really going on here and everywhere else in the world. This is a global coup by the elites, hundreds of years in the making.

  • FC

    Fractal C.

    5 5 2017 15:27

    9       1

    Oh, that first guy being interviewed is in some kind of denial. Calling Macron as a centrist is quite a stretch. Besides, France is falling apart and if he still can't see it, he won't ever see it!

  • MS

    Matt S.

    5 5 2017 14:29

    18       1

    Er... Macron is a protégé of the EU loving Francois Hollande, and an ex banker for the Rothschild's... lol! You couldn't get a MORE establishment candidate if you tried!

    • MS

      Matt S.

      5 5 2017 14:30

      8       0

      Independent my ASS!!!!

    • MS

      Matt S.

      5 5 2017 14:40

      17       1

      To the little muppet being interviewed in interview number 1... just because there has been peace in Europe since the formation of the EU, doesn't mean that it's because of the EU. It's just as possible that is nothing more than coincidence. Prove me wrong.

      And consider a point made just recently in an RVTV video I believe, when talking about the way the Fed has "eliminated" risk from the market... you can divert risk temporarily, but like a pressure cooker, if none is allowed to escape, when it finally does, it explodes like a bomb. The so-called peace of Europe is going to rip itself apart, no matter who wins... The people will not stand for this bullshit elitism any longer.

    • TM

      The-First-James M.

      5 5 2017 14:42

      7       1

      That was my first thought aswell. Credibility of independent thought of the first interviewee was severely dented by that statement in my view.

  • DK

    Damian K.

    5 5 2017 14:20

    11       1

    First interview - useless and a waste of time. So much fluff and lack of substance. I recommend checking out Mark Blyth from Brown for a contrast vs this guy. On the flip side, the third interview was quite good. This led me to discover Samuel's firm and his blog (https://www.lightfieldcap.com/blog-1)

    • SG

      Samuel G.

      5 5 2017 14:47

      0       0

      Actually Mark Blyth would be a good interview for RVTV.

  • JV

    JACK V.

    5 5 2017 14:06

    14       0

    More French speakers in Silicon Valley than Spanish????? Santa Clara County data does not even put French in the top 10.

  • EM

    Ewan M.

    5 5 2017 13:07

    8       2

    France will end up like Venezuela with their social programs. People get what they deserve.

  • SJ

    Sophie J.

    5 5 2017 12:36

    3       3

    Great as always Jawad

  • W

    Łukasz W.

    5 5 2017 11:44

    21       12

    What was that supposed to be?

    After watching USA piece made by Jawad Mian and feeling that it was bland and uninformative, I thought that I know too little about USA and did not really understand the message.

    But this one? Anyone living in Europe - especially western Europe is able to spot the sloppiness or bullshit of this piece.

    Three interviewees and not one addressed the real reasons of the 'populist' rise of FN party which are socio-economic - broadly speaking the fact that French people feel alien in their own country?

    Anyone who remembers Paris from 10 years ago as a cultural and business city-hub must feel amazed and sickened how this marvelous city was destroyed and degenerated by social experiments of current ruling class.

    The postcard sceneries presented in this material are not how Paris or any larger European city looks like.

    First interview - Jeremy Ghez - cringeworthy, clueless pseudo intellectual (Intelligent Yet Idiot - as would Nassim Taleb call him). This guy had nothing interesting to say and tried very hard to formulate his non-thoughts as barrenly as possible.

    Second interview - it was not an interview. Glorified advertisement for the quant service of this guy.

    Third interviewee looked like really sharp guy stuck in a room with interviewer who had no ideas or willingness to ask even quasi thought-provoking or engaging questions. Missed opportunity.

    Overall, in my opinion this piece has its spot and audience on Huffington Post or BuzzFeed not RVTV.

    • IF

      Ian F.

      8 5 2017 15:08

      2       0

      Bravo. I am an American who was in Paris two weeks after the Nov' 15 terrorist attacks. I witnessed the absolute military occupation of the city, fully outfit platoons of 6-8 soldiers patrolling the city. This is something no American has a frame of reference to, and thus it's not likely you are ever going to get that level of understanding from the mainstream media from this side of the pond. How Paris has been pulled apart wasn't hard for an uninformed outsider to see, but likely proved to be too racist for RV to touch upon.