The Economic Outlook Through Five Key Sectors

Published on
July 25th, 2019
Duration
72 minutes

The Economic Outlook Through Five Key Sectors

Featuring Raoul Pal, Mark Hansen, Paul Hodges, Harris Kupperman, Daniel Ruiz, and Keith Jurow

Published on: July 25th, 2019 • Duration: 72 minutes

Raoul Pal goes around the globe (via Skype) to take a deeper dive into specific sectors of the economy. In these five short interviews, Raoul gets a pulse on what’s happening on the ground in the worlds of metals, chemicals, shippers, autos and housing. Featuring Mark Hansen, CEO of Concord Resources, Paul Hodges, chairman of the pH Report, Harris Kupperman, president of Praetorian Capital, Daniel Ruiz, founder of Blinders Off Research, and Keith Jurow, Real Estate Analyst. Filmed on July 17 and July 18 in New York.

Comments

Transcript

  • MS
    Matt S.
    31 August 2019 @ 13:53
    Still streaming issues with Real Vision videos.... sort it out guys, this has been going on for years now, so annoying....
    • BA
      Blair A.
      5 September 2019 @ 03:19
      The issue is yours, not Real Vision
  • VS
    Varvara S.
    16 August 2019 @ 17:10
    Great interview! Yet so many videos on Real Vision on recession, conventional markets, and really same idea over and over again. Would very much love an episode on a non-mainstream topic, an extravagant market or product. Apart from that, enormous pleasure watching RV! Thanks for all the hard work!
  • MH
    Marco H.
    11 August 2019 @ 13:44
    Thanks for for this episode. This whole economic series felt like RV in the old days again. And that is something I miss. We are overwhelmed with repeats from the past (or segments) and videos of people looking at their fabulous careers (which is entertaining once in a while) but that makes it harder to find good recent analysis. I just came back from my summer break and this great piece was obscured in the overview after I just logged into RV. I much rather have once per half year some good content than the daily cluttering of many average.
  • VC
    Vince C.
    6 August 2019 @ 23:59
    Raoul loved the video. The housing sector I think those were lagging indicators he cited. There was an inventory build 4th quarter. The build-up slowed the 1st quarter. It has now gone back the other direction in Q2 and Q3. The housing market is highly dependent on rates. Mortgage rates went from almost 5 to 3.75% on 30 year fixed. this has made the market hot again and is why we are the hottest sector this year. You can see early indicators with the treasuries. We have a highly positive correlation coefficient with treasuries. I am not saying anything about a recession just that the next few prints on housing will be better as the metrics catch up. The affordability index will go back the other way as well and already has because of the significant drop in rates improving affordability. I am in the housing market daily. There is much more, too much to write here. The current data is deceiving as well because of some dichotomies in the way builders built this cycle.
    • VC
      Vince C.
      7 August 2019 @ 00:02
      I should add my views on the Bay Area are the same. The Bay Area is much different than the rest of the U.S. and should not be representative of the market as a whole.
  • SP
    Stephane P.
    4 August 2019 @ 06:52
    Raoul, very nice video, as all the other ones you did. Now, where your subscribers should put their money ? Cash ? Bonds ? Treasuries ? Funds ???? Please help.
  • JG
    Jose G.
    30 July 2019 @ 18:21
    Just missed on on energy...
    • JG
      Jose G.
      30 July 2019 @ 18:22
      But really like this new approach on sector level
  • MN
    MICHIKO N.
    29 July 2019 @ 06:26
    I have been a real estate investor for over a decade and this RE guy feels like he just wants to be alarmist to get personal consultations through exposure. Inventory is up for sure, but still not near historical level where 6 months is supposed to be the norm. Has he tried to buy a house recently? Most markets regular homebuyers are still outpriced and outbid by cash and better offers. Oh, right, he never looks at regular markets, just San Francisco. Mortgage delinquency levels are at historical lows. How does he not bring that up when asked outright by Raoul? I would encourage the Team to look into engaging a better specialist for the field, because if this guy is the standard for any field, then I am not paying more than a dollar a year for subscription.
    • KJ
      Keith J. | Contributor
      30 July 2019 @ 15:58
      You might want to view my in-depth interview which posted on April 24.
    • CN
      Chase N.
      31 July 2019 @ 17:39
      Drop the link Keith J
  • MH
    Mark H.
    29 July 2019 @ 01:45
    Nice quick overview,perhaps this style could become a regular Real Vision feature.Great work
  • T~
    Tshort63 ~.
    28 July 2019 @ 16:31
    This series, and in particular this episode, is fabulous. The normal person does not have access to the breakdown in core fundamentals to identify and discuss momentum. This is up there with my favorite series so far. Brilliant!
  • AC
    Avi C.
    28 July 2019 @ 06:11
    Great effort. Great series Raoul.In the end The only one for me who might make sense with all of this is Hugh Hendry (strange as it may sound...) Really would love to have is opinion... After all is the last jedi...
    • WM
      Will M.
      4 August 2019 @ 16:26
      Nonsense
  • NR
    Nelson R.
    27 July 2019 @ 15:35
    Great panel all around, huge fan of both Paul and Keith.
    • KJ
      Keith J. | Contributor
      29 July 2019 @ 03:23
      Very much appreciated Nelson.
    • PH
      Paul H. | Contributor
      12 August 2019 @ 13:41
      Thanks, Nelson
  • SB
    Stephen B.
    27 July 2019 @ 01:38
    Brilliant!
  • KS
    Karen S.
    26 July 2019 @ 21:43
    What fabric do you think his jacket is
  • VS
    Victor S. | Contributor
    26 July 2019 @ 20:52
    Raul great idea -thank you for some very important insights.
  • DS
    David S.
    26 July 2019 @ 17:18
    Personal consumption expenditures rose 4.3% in the second quarter while gross private domestic investment declined 5.5%. It would be interesting to hear an economist discuss the second quarter GDP including consumer spending, savings, IRA withdrawals, etc. Is this different from the past? How is it affecting the market? How will it affect the election? Thanks. DLS
  • KC
    Kenneth C.
    26 July 2019 @ 16:54
    Raoul, These are the interviews, the in depth encouragement of the interviewee to expand their thought and take you aboard their logic train, that define Real Vision. Now I'm watching this in bits, and I just finished Paul Hodges' segment. As much as I believe I have an understanding of shadow banking I know it's lacking. In fact what I do understand of it comes from Real Vision. I would love a "Shadow Banking" week if that sounds like a good idea. Thanks again.
  • GF
    George F.
    26 July 2019 @ 14:06
    I love these interviews but talk about dogs not barking: VTI’s up, TLT’s up, DXY’s up.
  • PG
    Philippe G.
    26 July 2019 @ 13:17
    Great stuff!!
  • BM
    Bryan M.
    26 July 2019 @ 05:26
    What a great series and what a great idea Raoul. I feel blessed to be a subscriber so a big thank you to John Mauldin as well.
  • jd
    john d.
    26 July 2019 @ 04:26
    When I was 12 i read "The Shining" ... it was so scary I had to sleep with the light on for a week. This RV series of interviews have been scarier, IMO. Cheers John.
  • JS
    Johannes S.
    26 July 2019 @ 04:11
    Those interviews have all been fantastic. But as others, I’m worried about confirmation bias. If the recession outlook becomes mainstream, what’s the contrarian point of view (and more importantly, what would it be based on)? Glad if you could bring someone with a good bull case to the programme.
    • BM
      Bryan M.
      26 July 2019 @ 05:29
      I agree with what you say Johannes but when "the truth" stares you in the face one must eventually act on it.
  • PB
    Pieter B.
    26 July 2019 @ 03:52
    Brilliant!!! I love these overviews!
  • AH
    Alfred H.
    26 July 2019 @ 01:30
    Here are some insights an ordinary investor like me could never get by just sitting and listening for an hour. It's almost too lazy. Grateful, and most impressed with the breadth and clarity.
  • tc
    t c.
    26 July 2019 @ 01:00
    Just started watching but have to say the format needs to be here more. Great potential for stock picking from picking these types of brains. Hope we see it down the road. Another grand slam for RP.
  • TM
    Todd M.
    25 July 2019 @ 23:50
    bravo, super cool... this is why we have RV. Rock on!
  • MW
    Mark W.
    25 July 2019 @ 23:37
    I recommend US Small Cap Manager Eric Cinnamond next. He knows his set of about 500 small companies better than anyone in the world. With the right interviewer, will be top notch.
  • WW
    William W.
    25 July 2019 @ 22:59
    A critical idea hear Raoul...bringing thinkers and ideas from individual sectors to glean "boots-on" perspectives from those working the ground...perhaps bring this to other sectors such as Chips, retail, etc... I'm very glad I pulled the trigger on this membership...
  • MS
    Mark S.
    25 July 2019 @ 20:39
    Excellent video.
  • NH
    Neil H.
    25 July 2019 @ 20:25
    Brilliant is the only word to describe this presentation. Keep it coming.
  • DS
    David S.
    25 July 2019 @ 20:07
    home run and a six at the same time. Congratulations.
  • SL
    Steven L.
    25 July 2019 @ 20:05
    For me, the elephant in the room is jobs & wages, which weren't covered. How about covering real time employment data in the US, Europe & China. From the rate of change one can predict the knock on effects in autos, housing, etc.
  • JH
    James H.
    25 July 2019 @ 19:57
    Liked the show but I’m concerned there could be some confirmation bias here. Would be nice to hear from the bulls too.
    • RS
      Ryan S.
      25 July 2019 @ 21:40
      100% James, I had the exact same thought. I'm inclined to agree with what's being said here but it would be nice to see some opposing views to get the contemplative juices flowing.
  • TC
    Timothy C.
    25 July 2019 @ 19:34
    Great job! I would suggest adding a different point of view on housing from Josh Steiner at Hedgeye.
  • tW
    tgwtom W.
    25 July 2019 @ 19:29
    Beautiful presentation. Thank you.
  • SS
    Steven S.
    25 July 2019 @ 18:42
    great work Raoul - you've been hitting it out of the park! Now let's get the US & Global grain production represented on this format. The Anderson's do an excellent series - here's one from July 18 - https://www.andersonsgrain.com/market-commentary/market-videos/crop-progress/
  • RD
    Ron D.
    25 July 2019 @ 18:29
    Would really like to see more from Mr Kipperman. Shipping is such a key sector with many opportunities and its tragically under-represented in RVs content book. Great interview. I think what this has shown is that RV leveraging its access and reach to focus on bottom up related content really brings the most value. This is really tough to emulate for even a large fund, let alone most of the retail investors that are watching RV. Taking this to the extreme - I could see real bottom up content with private business owners in key intersections of the market. (thinking transportation/logistics etc). There would be a lot to learn there, and those people rarely are given a voice.
    • AC
      Andrew C.
      14 August 2019 @ 10:59
      I think this makes Mr Kupperman's point. No-one is looking at shipping because it is so beaten down. Bankruptcies flushed out previous stock holders and re-jigged debt. Ship-builders broke with order-books empty. The shipping industry stocks almost have only one direction to go - UP ! Kuppy is really worth following, with his irregular posts.....
  • CJ
    Charles J.
    25 July 2019 @ 15:41
    I absolutely loved this video. This is exactly why I'm a subscriber.
  • EC
    Emily C.
    25 July 2019 @ 14:47
    According to Zillow, Palo Alto housing is down 11 percent and expected to decline a further 10 percent next year. Since 2012, housing has gone up 100 percent, and it is currently 2-3x more expensive to buy than to rent. What I have seen first hand are individual home buyers who have done so well in the past 7 years that they are now trying to extend themselves and purchase a second home. When you look at other markets like Greenwich, CT the hedge fund capital of the world, they are down nearly 40 percent. The east coast started declining sooner. What’s also interesting is that foreign investment in US real estate is also down considerably something like 56 percent in the past two years. We used to hear about Chinese investors snapping up property all the time in Palo Alto, but now not only is capital not leaving China, Chinese companies are actually dumping their US real estate holdings. It will be interesting to see how Chinese pull back will affect markets like the Bay Area, Vancouver and Australia.
    • DV
      Donald V.
      25 July 2019 @ 15:18
      juicy stuff
    • KJ
      Keith J. | Contributor
      26 July 2019 @ 03:12
      Very thoughtful comment, Emily.
  • DK
    David K.
    25 July 2019 @ 14:25
    Raoul, I've been at this for 30 years and can tell you this was the single best episode td. Its one thing to trust a macro data point/opinion, its another to make your own from the ground up. PleasePleasePlease make this a quarterly series. It would completely change the investing framework for my clients and I. David Kelly
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      25 July 2019 @ 14:38
      This is the second time we experimented with this format. The first one was a few years ago on oil. It seems to be a big hit so we are looking into how to use it more often as many people have found it useful.
  • AS
    Alejandro S.
    25 July 2019 @ 14:05
    Raoul, With services consumption being 50% of GDP, shouldn’t you be focusing on that? We know the cyclical parts of the economy are slowing shaprly like industrial production, but the key question is whether a contraction of the goods economy will be enough to push the US into recession. Looking forward to hear from an expert in the service economy and the labor market.
  • AD
    A D.
    25 July 2019 @ 13:45
    Half way through this latest video it hit me- Raul P. is working for me, organizing video calls and asking experts tough questions- unbelievable and make me love RV so much more! Great to have you on my team, Raul pls let me know if there is anything I can do for you.
    • AD
      A D.
      25 July 2019 @ 13:46
      sorry for the spelling, Raoul
  • TJ
    Terry J.
    25 July 2019 @ 13:34
    This whole Recession Watch series has from start to finish been totally captivating and so informative. After the phenomenal quality of the initial interviews, I had wondered whether you could sustain that for the series, but of course you did, arguably closing with the best of all in obtaining insights from specialists in these five important sectors. An unmissable series. Thank you Raoul and Real Vision.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      25 July 2019 @ 14:07
      My pleasure!
  • Nv
    Nick v.
    25 July 2019 @ 12:22
    Great job Raoul. Shipping and housing especially interesting
  • GK
    Giannis K.
    25 July 2019 @ 11:27
    Am at odds with the fact HP and Apple are on the same desk.
    • WW
      William W.
      25 July 2019 @ 23:02
      Hey! ...exact same low-frequency trading set-up here as well...
  • DS
    Darryl S.
    25 July 2019 @ 10:59
    I have always loved your filming style and here we see a change. It adds to the impact of the information conveyed. I can very much understand why RV is branching out to offer film/video services to others. Whatever you are doing keep doing it.
  • gg
    georgy g.
    25 July 2019 @ 10:44
    Great format. More of cross industry please. Would be great to have tech cross industry
  • RL
    Rui L.
    25 July 2019 @ 09:38
    Sincere congratulations on "coming up" with this type of methodical complementary multiple interview video format.
  • CG
    C G.
    25 July 2019 @ 09:13
    More research on the service sector economy please. An analysis of the professional services industry (accounting, corporate finance, recruitment, legal, marketing other consulting etc etc...) would be a very useful insight on top of the traditional chemicals/mining/energy/housing/autos/energy/transport/manufacturing economies etc....
  • PJ
    Peter J.
    25 July 2019 @ 09:01
    Regardless of if and when recession hits, the series of vids that have been its makeup to date have been outstanding :)
  • ZM
    Zac M.
    25 July 2019 @ 08:55
    I think we're in a recession, I've been doing some research in to the UK construction industry. The order book of the top 100 contractors has been shrinking by around 38% yy for the last 9 months. Its collapsing.
    • ZM
      Zac M.
      25 July 2019 @ 08:55
      Apologies, the civils subsector is 38%, overall market including house building shrinking by 20%.
  • CF
    Christian F.
    25 July 2019 @ 08:03
    This series has been excellent. Well done for this crest content.
    • CF
      Christian F.
      25 July 2019 @ 08:04
      Great^
  • DI
    Dabangg I.
    25 July 2019 @ 07:48
    A recommendation: can you please get the guests to wear a Bluetooth or any headset. There is too much echo and audio quality is more imp.
  • ET
    Eduard T.
    25 July 2019 @ 05:21
    Great!