The Macro View on Gold

Published on
April 25th, 2019
Duration
18 minutes

The Macro View on Gold

Trade Ideas ·
Featuring Tavi Costa

Published on: April 25th, 2019 • Duration: 18 minutes

Tavi Costa, global macro analyst at Crescat Capital, makes his Real Vision debut in style — with a bullish trade idea on precious metals. He highlights why it’s finally time for gold to start outperforming, confirms his thesis by examining a variety of macro indicators, and discusses how to play the current setup, in this interview with Jake Merl. Filmed on April 24, 2019.

Comments

Transcript

  • PC
    Peter C.
    30 April 2019 @ 03:17
    if this video came out one or two months ago I bet you have double the thumbs up and no objection. On the other hand if it was out in August, probably more thumbs down than up?
  • NI
    Nate I.
    29 April 2019 @ 02:00
    Thanks RV. Great interview with Tavi. I agree that gold has some nice tailwinds right now.
  • M.
    Milton .. | Founder
    27 April 2019 @ 15:43
    Thanks for flagging the transcript issue, all good now 🤘
  • NR
    Nelson R.
    27 April 2019 @ 14:51
    I liked some of his charts and in general think it was a good presentation. However, when the rubber meets the road I am left thinking: All of that to present a gold trade with a 2:1 reward to risk? If he is so bearish and his conviction is so high he should be presenting 10:1 trades that benefit from this view and really pay for the massive amount of man hours that clearly have gone into researching this thesis (or else there has been a misallocation of human capital here). If his thesis is right (and I agree with several of his points) the big payoff is not in gold but somewhere else.
  • SS
    Shanthi S.
    27 April 2019 @ 07:25
    Brilliant!!! I hoping he’s early. Dollar spike, gold down, then both up together. Brent Johnson style. Either way, I’m a fan of Tavi! He seems razor sharp! Excellent guest!
  • df
    dillon f.
    27 April 2019 @ 01:17
    Crescat Capitals performance has been very good in recent years. Been following these guys for awhile. I am inclined to believe Tavi.
  • JL
    James L.
    27 April 2019 @ 00:12
    I’m having trouble downloading the transcript. Is this a common problem or just me?
    • DR
      David R.
      27 April 2019 @ 06:33
      Me too. There seems to be a problem here with this.
  • BC
    Burton C.
    26 April 2019 @ 13:40
    Very well presented. Keep him on the short list. I think he will be proven right, but yes possibly slightly early. USA melt-up scenario may come first over the summer.
  • DH
    Dean H.
    26 April 2019 @ 02:01
    Brilliant presentation; so much value provided. Please come back to Realvision often!
  • PM
    Polina M.
    25 April 2019 @ 23:58
    Great info, thanks. In case anyone was wondering how he made the 2-yr yield chart look the way it did, he was using the logarithmic (log) view. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=nJUh
  • VK
    Viresh K.
    25 April 2019 @ 21:39
    I get what he’s saying, but I think the timing I wrong. A lot of their indicators are long term stuff, and not timing tools. Even leading indicators are not showing recessionary signs yet
  • TJ
    Terry J.
    25 April 2019 @ 20:18
    I agree with Kenneth C; Tavi strikes me as an incredibly bright guy and he impressed me with all the persuasive charts he presented as to why gold is going to do well when the inevitable recession and equity bear arrives. Surely nobody can argue it is only a question of when and not if? I understand that for RV subscribers whom are traders timing is everything and being too early could really hurt, but for those of us whom are investors how on earth can anyone not be looking to be optimally diversified at this juncture in the business and credit cycles and to be holding both US Treasuries and gold even if still trying to partially enjoy the blow off last innings of this extraordinary equity bull?
  • TH
    Timo H.
    25 April 2019 @ 17:54
    There's no way I'm buying GLD !
  • KC
    Kenneth C.
    25 April 2019 @ 17:38
    One of the brightest new guys on the scene. And of the many great guests here at RV, one of two who have gone to school in St. Louis (heard your Meb Faber podcast). Joe John Duran (SLU) of United Capital being the other. Tavi, if you are ever invited to give a talk at Lindenwood, please post it to your twitter feed. I'll drive over into St. Charles to see it. Keep up the good work.
  • DW
    Daniel W.
    25 April 2019 @ 13:20
    "confirms he thesis by examining a number of marco Indicators...". Really? From my perspective the only confirmation for he thesis would be higher gold prices. I'll continue to take the other side of that bet until I no longer receive 10+ mails, videos, newsletters each week forecasting an imminent major breakout in Gold.
    • MK
      Michael K.
      25 April 2019 @ 17:53
      I want to believe tavi and I agree with him, but it just isn’t happening and dollar spike seems just as likely
    • PJ
      Peter J.
      1 May 2019 @ 09:43
      Daniel you need to unsubscribe from those mails :)