I would like to clarify Raoul's comment on corporate bond BBBs. He is absolutely correct that BBBs are half of the market if he means the investment grade market, which is $5 trillion. If you add in the $2.5 of junk, then BBB is one-third of the total $7.5 trillion. Do you agree, Raoul? Thanks.

Hey Julian - after tightening stops and taking some profit at bond longs, what are you looking for to step in and get long again?

Great discussion guys! Thank you! Would have liked to hear a little more on gold and what you see coming. I hear quite a few experts predicting another pullback before the bull run. Also, since recording the AUD is up well over 1%. Does this change your thesis at all, or is it just a little zig in the general upward zag of the USD as you see it?

Thanks guys. More frequent flash updates would be nice. Some time ago the message was sell everything except the US and the thoughts were (if I remember correctly) the FED would probably not allow more than 20% to the downside before stepping in. Just before Christmas Raoul sent out "it is time". This was when the US markets were down the roughly 20% and the FED did indeed step in. This market moves quickly and I feel more frequent updates would be helpful. Cheers and Happy New Year

Gents - the following was a quick exchange offline between Julian and myself today re: Netflix. He wanted it posted here on MI. Timely and topical. Julian: You have called Netflix really well. I read the recent piece u put out where u focused on Amazon….with Netflix actually the far more vertical of the two at the moment…do u have any short sale entry target from your charts? They report next week so might be worth a 7 day put play here I’m thinking. Your Q comes at an interesting time, because with Powell having appeared to blink, Netflix is rallying hard. Perhaps I was a little premature in calling the bull trap rally! Anyway, let's see how the market progresses between now and earnings. At that point, heading into the release if we've seen a decent enough bounce I'd be tempted to buy some puts. The higher we go the better! Running short into the numbers in cash is dangerous as the moves these days are insane! Julian

Great conversational discussion, felt like they forgot the camera and audience was there and just talked about their thoughts..... loved the comment from Raul that ".....maybe the market doesn't behave like it used to behave....."

I think at times in the discussion Raoul was a little too quick to shoot Julian down when it sounded as though he was about to make an interesting point. I get that Raoul is passionate and has made some great calls of late but I would like to hear Julian’s expanded thoughts as well. It felt as though any time Julian questioned the “market is going down in a straight line” mantra he was cut off. Overall a great discussion and I don’t want to come across as too critical but I wonder if going back to having a moderator like you did with Aaron in the early days would be useful. Or even if it was just some months to mix things up a bit. Grant moderating would be ideal but maybe that is too much to wish for!

Guys, I like this format a lot, but at the risk of sounding negative, Raoul looks at the camera the whole time and is clear in the points he makes. Julian spends a lot of time looking away from the camera, presumably at his Bloomberg screens, and often seems distracted in making his points. I think his arguments are not as clear as a result, and so the overall quality of debate with Raoul is weaker as a result. Simple to sort out, though.

Julian says "...theres not a corporate CEO in the United States thats paid to actually produce a dammed thing out there, all their paid to do is goose the equity price..." Great stuff.

Hi Raul, Julian, curious to know how you’re thinking about the yen in light of your macro framework...particularly as you both think there will be a strong bid for dollars in these turbulent markets.

what do you mean flipped your view on the bond market?

Julian, In light of your view of the rally phase, I'm wondering when/if you'll re-enter the NFLX short. (great call by the way!) Do you have a chart based level in mind or would you time it with the tone of the market rally?

these videos need charts and the data

Can someone shed the light into recent price action in bonds - why the sudden sell off in bonds after Powell's speech? It was clearly dovish, yet the front of curve sold off underperforming rest of the curve. If future expectation for a pause from FED, shouldn't 2s start rallying here?

Gents - at risk of sounding like a broken record, I really look forward to my weekly macro fix. I HATED economics at uni and didn't understand the benefits of quantitative maths/econometrics until 10 years after the fact! I get as much out of reading your in-depth replies and explaining concepts as I do absorbing the weekly content. Such an educational and valuable service you two provide, keep it up!

Raoul & Julian... Thx for all you’re doing, addictive stuff ... Q - What is your current outlook on Gold/Silver & their associated mining ETFs...I.e. GDX, GDXJ, SIL, SILJ etc ? If this is a similar environment as late ‘15 & early ‘16...that lead to an explosive move in gold/silver, miners especially.

Appreciate the arguments in favor of a strong USD, but disagree, and not because of spreads, though on that basis it is way overpriced. Among other reasons, positioning is already very bullish and heavy in long USD/JPY. My target for the yen is 101 in the next 3-4 months, even absent a risk off event that will recall JPY back home. Net cumulative inflows to the US since the GCF are now 100% private (~6t), and much more fickle than official flows. There are a number of probable catalysts that could make the US unattractive.

When was this recorded? The CAD & AUD lows comments seem to be from around beginning of month.

Hi Julian, I was wondering in particular whether you could look specifically at the effect of QT on the markets from your perspective. I think we all get the potential effects of changes in interest rates and there is lots of talk over backing off interest rate rises yet QT appears to be sailing on oblivious to all around it. Despite looking at this stuff more than is healthy for me I don't quite understand the potential impact of QT on the market, credit markets in particular. Does it impact Treasury rates, credit spreads, EM, USD; all of the above? Your thoughts would be most appreciated. Cheers

Hi Julian, can you clarify what you said at 5’07 to go (toner counts down on RV vids) as Raoul was taking about the junk bond market making way for the new issuance when one of the majors gets downgraded? It’s not clear to hear you underneath Raoul talking and I’m worried I’m missing an important action point. Cheers

I would like to know what Raoul, Julian and others think of the chances that future interventions of policy makers have a lessor and lessor positive impact on markets? My thinking is that after all the ZIRP, QE and stimulus economies either have not developed an ongoing impetus to stand on their own as per the policy makers forecast and or expectations. If you agree on that, at what point or ever would investors say this stuff can't or does not work?

Does any know what date this was filmed ?

We saw a big reversal last week on the daily and weekly chart of the AUDUSD. The AUD broke down below the 2015/2016 low but reversed back above it. The CAD was also very strong at the end of last week.

Thanks, nice chat. There is a bit of a paradoxical setup here given we expect yields going higher and yet Raul is still strong on the bond rally wagon. So are we saying the play is widening spreads but we are long investment grade and govies?

Raoul, would you buy puts on HYG?

Raoul/Julian - do you think now is a good place to take some profits on bond longs given how far and fast we came off and wait for a slight selloff here and buy the dip?

Hi Raoul,Hi Julian, Thanks a lot for your great inputs as always. While I do agree with a lot of your views in mid-term, I think that the recent intervention from J Powell on Friday is starting to re-introduce a Fed put far much quicker than previously anticipated. What s your view on this as the video was recorded before his recent intervention ? Is it a short term tactical game changer or another misinterpreation of his speech by the market...

Excellent discussion. I found it both funny and sad when Julian reminded everyone that money managers are paid to keep you in the market as opposed to make you money. Funny because it's mostly true. Sad because most people don't know it's mostly true. I had a question about being bullish on USD as a way to capture a risk-off move. I get that it makes sense to be bullish on USD against say CAD or AUD in a risk-off move. But when I look at the most recent risk off move in equities, I noticed the yen has outperformed USD as has gold. My questions: Would you expect the yen and gold to continue to outperform the USD during the next phase of an equity market downturn/risk off move? Why or why not? Many thanks in advance.

Thanks again guys—good discussion. “Is there another currency?”, “Can you name another currency?”,.....hold on a sec, I thought many moons ago Gold was thought to be a “currency”—any chance Gold can hold it’s own in a big US $ move up?

Hi Guys, Raoul, I agree with you about the USD is not that simple as interest rate differential, but what can be interesting is that in less than a month FED have change dramatically the speech about outlook. In addition we had a monster payrrol on Friday. Could this factor change your view in the short term, maybe close GT10 trade ?

Thanks for this; and really glad to hear flash updates are coming back.