Insider Talks – June 2018

Published on
June 7th, 2018
Duration
31 minutes

Insider Talks – June 2018

Featuring

Published on: June 7th, 2018 • Duration: 31 minutes

In this Insider Talks, Raoul and Julian dive deep into recent market moves and go back and forth on the meaning of all this. US bond yields, the dollar, EU banks, Oil – it seems like markets are at a tipping point and investors should pay attention. Filmed on 5 June 2018.

Comments

  • BD
    Bryan D.
    25 June 2018 @ 04:42
    I think the correlation of Libor-OIS with USD since 2016 should be approached with caution. USD Libor - OIS widened in 2016 peaking around September ahead of the implementation of US Money Market Reform on October 14th, 2016. Leading up to this date the US Money Market Funds didn't know what their investor balances would be as they moved from a Fixed to Floating NAV structure and had to impose liquidity gates and fees for the first time. Due to the uncertainty of how much would flow out of Prime funds into Govvy funds which didn't have to move to these same restrictions or USD bank accounts the Institutional Prime funds stopped or significantly reduced investiing in bank paper until they had a clearer view of what their fund balances would be so this Libor-OIS move was driven by a regulatory change. The drivers of the USD over this timeframe seem to be much more economic and political in nature so we should be wary of extrapolating this correlation.
  • md
    mike d.
    17 June 2018 @ 18:27
    I watch most of what is on real vision, and follow a few other great sites. Over the last year I have learned a lot. What have I heard?? The market is going higher, much higher. The market is going down. The dollar is going up the dollar is going down. Oil is going to 180, oil is going to 20. Gold is going way up, gold is going nowhere. Bitcoin is where it is at, bitcoin is going to zero, etc. etc. Each of these views have been backed up with logic. The truth of the matter is that that these are all guesses, no one knows. What I do know is that regarding money, all that matters is money. In 1978 I purchased my first new chevy pick up truck for 3200.00 off the showroom floor. I could replace that truck today for around 50,000.00. Same applies to housing, education, health care etc. It is not the product or service but the dollar. This will not change because it cannot change. I must invest accordingly. Just my opinion.
    • JM
      Jason M.
      18 June 2018 @ 06:02
      Mike: What are you investing in given your concerns on purchasing power? growth or stores of value?
    • md
      mike d.
      22 June 2018 @ 11:57
      Jason, metals and miners in all forms, and it has been horrible but I believe that when the smoke clears they will pay off.
  • NH
    Neil H.
    7 June 2018 @ 18:49
    who are the folks who did not like this video, as the content could not have been any clearer or direct. keep it coming.
    • @F
      @HoodRichFABIO F.
      19 June 2018 @ 02:25
      make a list of the ideas and time frames instead of us having to listen to the whole thing and take out own notes--KISS
  • gg
    gurdeep g.
    8 June 2018 @ 09:19
    Gotta say I sympathise with the two thumbs down. If you subscribed from day 1 you'd very likely to have made negative in equity. But lets brush over all that and re short oil at 66. Btw I have tremendous respect for these guys. But on the macro front, just not cut it well at all this year where others have (eg JDL).
    • bb
      brian b.
      16 June 2018 @ 06:05
      yes i have lost big % in INDA, URA, short oil, and now negative in short euro
    • @F
      @HoodRichFABIO F.
      19 June 2018 @ 02:23
      I wish RV would keep track of each person's calls and the total performance of all trade ideas made in the entire RV ecosystem so the could c the reality and not hear individual negative experiences.
  • AM
    Alonso M.
    8 June 2018 @ 16:39
    I really enjoy these conversations because it gives me some of the pieces I need to complete the jigsaw puzzle. Personally I don't find much value in actionable trade ideas because I think there are some very different time horizons and circumstances at work. It's more about taking the macro information being provided, comparing it to other quality analysis, and making one's own judgement based on what is appropriate for your own circumstance. Those who are expecting every trade idea to come through with a clean entry, exit, and stop price are deluding themselves.
    • @F
      @HoodRichFABIO F.
      19 June 2018 @ 02:19
      at the MOST: I'd want them to organize there trades suggestions, entry, exit, buy/sell prices somewhere. at the LEAST: I want a chart/spreadsheet interface on my Macro Insider (MI) account where I can see the TRACK RECORD of all their ideas/suggestions. I want RV to organize their trade ideas so us subscribers can see their performance track record. Not renewing MI next month. If they offered a page/place to visualize the performance of the MI and trader suggestions/ideas & >50% ideas/suggestions were profitable I'd spend the dough to renew MI. I just want RV to do the homework to show me how many times the calls were right/wrong/break even. If the performance is good or better I'd renew in a heartbeat.
  • SC
    Sean C.
    8 June 2018 @ 18:29
    My best guess is that the people voting thumbs down are probably in disagreement with the ideas and/or the results they personally have had over the last 12 months (at least in terms of oil short). Raoul has a longer time frame than most and some people don't get that. For me, I subscribed to Macro Insiders to get the idea of Raoul's and Julian's process and see how their thinking evolves as the markets do because frankly I don't know the fundamentals like they do and I focus on what I know: technicals. MI helps me develop a big picture framework that I can look to see if the charts agree. In terms of actionable trade ideas long term, I don't care about whether they're right or wrong, even in their own time frames. I'm using them to hear the USD strength argument, then I listen to Yusko and Rickards about the USD weakness argument and ask myself, "How can I position myself to make money with a margin of safety if either of these events occur?" With their help, as a 32yr old American, my solution so far is, no bonds (thinking range for US rates before rates go higher), put tight stops on my equities, hold some cash, hold gold/silver, hold miners for the long term, and put a tiny amount in the top 25 market cap crypto currencies as a low risk/high reward play. I have no idea which coins make it through or if any of them do but if the reward is 50x, why wouldn't I? This kind of thinking has helped me dramatically. I didn't have a plan for 2016 and sold out of most of my equities. That's my fault I didn't get back in and let my emotions control me. So with the help of Julian and Raoul, you can at least get an idea of what's possible and devise a plan to reduce risk. That's what I get out of this and I hope everyone can too. Our portfolios are our own responsibility and no one else's. Cheers everyone, and have a great weekend!
    • JL
      J L.
      9 June 2018 @ 10:31
      Couldn't agree more, as a 28yo with a tech but no financial background just the confidence RV (and this service in particular) inspires is worth the subscription.
    • gg
      gurdeep g.
      10 June 2018 @ 11:42
      Surprised lots of subscribers here are young investors like myself. My conclusion is that this product in particular better suited to high capital individuals or potential retirees. For a young investor £2k every year for 15 years with average 10% return would equate to £80k compounded. Unless you think the threat of a recession or stock market crash is imminent, not worth the money. Risk reward skewed to those I mentioned above
    • LM
      Lawrence M.
      12 June 2018 @ 02:24
      Also glad to see that there are some younger members. I'm similar to situation as EF but with a real estate background. For myself, some of the recommendations couldn't be taken advantage of because of account restrictions (I have a general brokerage account). I see gurdeep's point, but I also agree that this product gives me a sense of confidence and an idea of whats possible / going on behind the scenes. I saved the membership fee (approx 2k) just exiting a bond position that had previously been quite profitable, after hearing Macro Insider thoughts. Personally, I'd rather see my money go to these guys than an advisory firm that charging fees to push their bosses products. It's been a great learning experience, will have a decision to make come renewal period (next mo).
    • CS
      C S.
      17 June 2018 @ 11:02
      I've also a decision to make next month. $3k is a little steep.
  • bb
    brian b.
    16 June 2018 @ 07:02
    can you please somewhere on the site put a list of recommended trades, when recommended, price at recommendation, stop, and where it stands, like stopped out on this date, still pending etc...
  • KA
    Kelly A.
    10 June 2018 @ 20:16
    Thanks for keeping us sober!
  • DW
    Daniel W.
    8 June 2018 @ 11:43
    Interesting, but not convincing from my perspective. I'll stay with J. Declerque, tactical long EURUSD here. The worst in Italy may be over for now, US real economy cannot take much higher rates and ECB might turn from fully dovish to less dovish. The main driver for EURUSD remain interest rate differentials and I just cannot see the FED ECB spread widen a lot more.
    • JL
      J L.
      8 June 2018 @ 14:49
      I am a huge fan of JD but keep in mind she operates in ultrashort time horizons. When she said long EUR at 1.16 she may very well have meant with a target of 1.18, I would not try to follow her advice unless you actually subscribe to the service.
    • DW
      Daniel W.
      8 June 2018 @ 18:48
      Thanks E F. but that is actually not quite true. I am a subscriber and thus I can say that she operates in different timeframes. Have a good day
    • gg
      gurdeep g.
      8 June 2018 @ 19:45
      Just want to add, her target was 1.25 so bang on the money! She’s said it on macrovoices and Twitter.
    • DW
      Daniel W.
      9 June 2018 @ 09:26
      Gurdeep, I will need to double check but I am sure she said 1.45 on Macrovoices and latest Realvision interview
    • JL
      J L.
      9 June 2018 @ 10:25
      Thanks DW, you are very privileged to have access to JDI, I just had the feeling a few people on RV have been disappointed by blindly following some of these FX calls in the past without the full info!
  • SR
    Steve R.
    8 June 2018 @ 00:13
    Great stuff guys! Really appreciate the idea of 'flash updates' as and when needed as not all of us have access to the same kinds of data you guys do, so I think we would all value these of kinds of update - especially as you say, events could happen extremely quickly. On US equities, I follow Peter Brandt and he is saying because the breadth of the US markets is still very broad based it's less likely markets are on the verge of a breakdown. This makes complete sense to me, and I (personally) think we may see markets move up much higher than anyone is expecting, possibly to new ATHs over the summer in a final blow-off type top? This would then play into your thinking where it's the end of Q3 and into Q4 where things start to get really interesting.
  • LP
    Laurence P.
    7 June 2018 @ 21:09
    Great job guys. Interested in what potential trades (other than long dollar/short euro) the two of you would advise a US based retail investor to put on to capture a possible/probable Italian fiasco? Thanks!
  • JG
    John G.
    7 June 2018 @ 20:54
    Thanks for another insightful Insider Talks, Julian and Raoul. I think the dollar is the key partly because there is wide disagreement on its direction. Many think the rally is almost over while others like you think there is much more upside. There will be a lot of people on the wrong side of the trade which means the people who get this right are going to profit big time. The Italy bond market could be the spark for the dollar rally and the contagion declines in the equity markets. Very interesting times.
  • SS
    Sam S.
    7 June 2018 @ 14:39
    Looks like the roof is leaking.
    • JL
      J L.
      7 June 2018 @ 15:41
      It's called the United Kingdom