Comments
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BRCan you advise the most liquid short eft to BKX and HYG Thanks
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NRThanks Gents. Superb
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JKDo you think it would be possible to sequence a short IG bond etf after HYG goes down? Or will the BBB go no bid when HYG goes?
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JLany chance whatsoever shorting could be restricted in the US?
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BMGreat video guys. I am reminded of the quote " if you can keep your head, when all around are loosing theirs, you obviously don't understand what is going on" . US $ v EUR at 1.13 today 1.09 last week, maybe the expected yields on US v EUR treasuries will narrow in the near future and Europeans are taking their money back home, eliminating the currency risk? PS the quote refers to myself. BMC
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MBGentlemen, had to watch it a couple of times and I am terribly afraid to wholeheartedly agree with both of you. Equity markets are not sleeping at the wheel, they seem to hibernate in a parallel universe. Credit is extremely vulnerable. For the first time I hope Raoul will be utterly proven wrong with all his conclusions, otherwise the GFC will turn out to be a weekend at a Spa in comparison. Question to Julien: does your investment case long platinum / short Nasdaq still stand? Question to both of you: in case some of the well documented "balance sheet delinquents" - i.e. car manufacturers, shale, etc - go belly up, would you see the Fed stepping in and become the "owner of last resort" - or would that be simply beyond its capabilities? Appreciate the timely thoughts and the insightful contributions from both of you
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CWI might have heard wrong, but I thought the part where Julian talks about # of firearms American own is a bit funny. He probably wants to multiply # that by two. I personally own around four and tens of thousand rounds. After just came back from Taiwan two days ago and seeing what is going on out there. I don't think the virus is that big of a deal. I think this will blow through. But not bullish of equity or credit because of what had happened in China. Supply chain is disrupted. I doubt there will be a mass exodus of companies leaving China because of virus. They leave because of the political environment. Virus is just another tipping point after last year's trade war. Next is the locus. The food prices will go crazy. That is my trade.
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BTRaoul, In view of Mike Green’s work on passive and market dynamics: If both the key buyers of stocks and corporate bonds leave the market, and retirees are forced to liquidate, wouldn’t there be even more redemptions that lead to further selling akin to Julien’s short gamma scenario? Would love to hear your thoughts on this?
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ADRaoul, does the low volume in the HYG puts concern you? Or do you expect an significant increase when the ETF breaks lower?
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JFThanks for the insights, Raoul and Julian, you both underscore the gravity of the situation.. Any reason not to buy HYG puts now, before the price moves, and if so what duration and strike price would you recommend? If not, what gives you pause right now?
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THCould any guidance be provided on what to do with junior gold miner positions? The price of gold is going up but we don't seem to be seeing a corresponding move in the gold stocks. Is it a better idea to sell off those positions and buy back in after the potential crash? Thank you for the amazing information and for RV as a whole.
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amRaoul, when estimating the fatality rate of covid for people in the retiring age bracket do you think that this could have a material affect on reducing the strain on the pension system to a manageable level?
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ISI have a question in regards of investing in gold. In the recent interview with Dan Oliver he stated that investors should be really careful with who their claim against due to a potential insolvency risk when you make your claim. Considering the potential meltdown that is predicted, is buying GLD sensible to gain the gold exposure, or are there any better alternatives you would recommend??
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KEAwesome chat guys. Thank you
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CLThis was timely and really helpful. Thank you.
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MWIf risk-parity is no longer working, there is only one way to hedge the deleveraging - short USD index (i.e., buy EUR/USD, short USD/JPY) through options. I guess not many people dare to do.
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BSAny recommendations for brokers that offer FX options? Retail trader here. Question to anyone
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BRWhat is the most liquid inverse / short ETF for high yield credit if you don’t want to play puts on HYG Thanks
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KGQuestion to Julian. What is the reason TSLA is not on the list among AMD, MSFT, AAPL?
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PLGents. Just referring to the comment about “holding cash” whilst also being negative on the prospects for European banks. Can I remind everyone within the EU to familiarise themselves with the intricacies it the EUs Banking Resolution and Recovery Directive 2014 (BRRD). Cash is great in a crisis provided it remains yours! Thanks. Pete
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JSThank you for your comments. How would you assess your own reactions and feelings towards what is happening right now versus 2008 or 2001?
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DMIs keeping large amounts of cash in the bank safe? Other potential solutions? Thanks as always for such valuable content.
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JKGreat stuff guys. Raoul a quick question if you have never bought Bitcoin, what is the best way to get exposure? Thanks
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DDGreat discussion but please God things will not turn out as bad as expected! I have a question on the banks ticker that was being discussed it sounded like BKS but that is Barnes and Noble. It could be my hearing so perhpase Jukian meant KBE which is something he shorted before? The ticker for the hospital bed company mentioned by Raoul is HRC Thanks