ProShares Short High Yield ETF (SJB)

FWLIW, I think you will have a window. But I notice that HYG is already sliding. So does that mean the clock is already running on your window to short IG? Dont know. I can see there is a potential problem in IG (a big potential problem), but its not the first place I expect to trade badly. That said, it might have the best risk reward!

Shorting is already somewhat restricted - SEC uptick rule. But could there be worse coming? Yes, its perfectly conceivable. The European example suggests that banks are particularly sensitive to the perceived need to impose shorting restrictions. The other way of doing it, if its necessary is just to announce a temporary bank holiday, while you work out how to stabilize things. Close the markets down for a couple of days.

Lol! I totally agree. It feels like they announced the Zombie Apocalypse and I missed the announcement cos I was watching "Antiques Roadshow". Keeping a very close eye on EUR. Looks like it might be breaking out.

Thanks! I hope I'm wrong..

This is a possible scenario Brian. JB talked about short gamma risks. RP has talked about a "doom loop". The one you described is not the only vicious circle one can imagine. Markets have "deselected" traders who have an inclination to be long of volatility or gamma for the last 10 years. Retirees have been rewarded for the last 30 years in stocks and credit. One can argue that a component of this is the fact that there were a herd: they all needed to save for retirements together. A lot of people don't understand quite how heavily their pensions are invested in corporate credit. In many respects its one of the few games in town big enough to accommodate pension funds. So if there is a bad economic cycle just as these retirees look to pull funds from their pensions, its not clear who is going to replace their buying or absorb their selling. Ultimately this could lead to "gate-ing", simply because there isn't enough liquidity in corporate bond markets to absorb substantial outflows. That said, I wouldn't expect the ultimate losses to be very big in high quality credit. Its in lower quality credit that the real risks lay. Cos if you think of a 6 year duration portfolio, it only takes about 6 years for it to go to cash if the underlying securities are "money-good". Of course, that's not entirely comforting if you needed cash right now.

Thanks Harry. :)

don't finesse too much, maybe aug $75 puts ?

Would it be better to wait for implied vol to come down a little from here?

Raoul, does the low volume the HYG puts ..put you off at all?

Junior gold miners are always a lagged, leveraged play on gold prices. Its not unusual for the metal to rise substantially before you get any play in junior miners. Of course this makes sense, given that management and local conditions/situations are such an important factor in the performance of mining stocks. But in the same way, the price of the stocks is probably not as closely tied to the metal on both the way up and the way down. Without detailed knowledge of the specific stock it doesnt make sense to offer advice. That said, standard trading rules apply. Capital preservation is always the priority.

A good question although a rather dark subject. At the margin yes, simply because its the extension of longevity (and expected longevity) which has made so many pension funds insolvent. So clearly reducing longevity will help. But the other side of the coin is the reduction in asset values. I think the recent fall in stocks and rise in bond prices has done way more damage to pension solvency than the expected gains from potential longevity decreases. The decline in bond yields and stock prices (if it persists) have made the existing pension obligations much much harder to meet. So right now, no. Pension funds solvency has actually declined precipitously in the last two weeks. Of course, if average life expectancy drops a lot then this wont be true. But I am sort of hoping that isnt the case. Cue the "bring out your dead" Monty Python video.

Considering counterparty risk is always wise. Its also worth noting that counterparty risk is usually wrong way risk. That said, the SPDR GLD ETF is not obviously a serious counterparty risk compared to say, a Russian bank. I can definitely construct a scenario in which the ETFs are unable to fulfill their commitments and need to be unwound. Back in the 30s for example, FDR ordered the UST to confiscate private gold holdings. My memory is that they actually had Treasury agents inspect all bank safe deposit boxes! But you have to admit that's quite an extreme scenario (for now!). The guns, ammo and tinned food crowd usually recommend that some proportion of private gold holdings be in gold coins or mini ingots, which have the benefit of being portable. Personally, I use mini-futures in trading gold. That isn't an investment recommendation, and traders using futures need to be comfortable with them. But its certainly another simple approach. But it wont help if the Federal Government pulls an FDR 2.0.

I'm short USD/JPY and have been since last week. I'd rather be that than short us equities. I do have this constant fear that the BOJ is going to take me out back and shoot me at any moment tho...

Interactive Brokers has FX options on futures (Globex)

Thanks!

Not sure which is the most liquid. The ETF JB was referring to was the SJB. One should note its negative carry.

Tesla has proven incredibly tricky to trade well despite having a chart pattern that just screams "bubble". So of it is the heavy short interest. Some of it may be the controversy the stock attracts. Either way, as others have said, its both a fascinating case study, and a bit of a cult. All that said, I can completely understand why you ask the question.

similar to worse

yes, for now.

Buy it on an exchange like Kraken then move to a hard wallet like Trezor. The What Bitcoin Did podcast recently did a comprehensive Guide to Bitcoin

open an account - kraken, coinbase et

BKX is the banks index