Insider Talks – May 2019

Published on
May 7th, 2019
24 minutes

Insider Talks – May 2019

Featuring Raoul Pal, Julian Brigden

Published on: May 7th, 2019 • Duration: 24 minutes

The Macro Insiders, Raoul, and Julian digest the latest Trump-China trade-news bomb and are looking for clues on future dollar moves in the FX volatility figures. Filmed on May 06, 2019


  • RK
    Robert K.
    12 May 2019 @ 21:15
    Just an idea for playing dollar strength: long USDZAR here above 14.1. It’s basically a US vs “shithole” country theme.
    • BH
      Bin H.
      19 May 2019 @ 02:00
      Could you elaborate more?
    • RK
      Robert K.
      12 June 2019 @ 13:32
      Sorry @Bin H. did not follow up. Hope you took out something from this 5% move so far.
  • VG
    Vivek G.
    13 May 2019 @ 05:36
    Raoul - appreciate your specific recommendation on Eurodollars. Thanks in advance
  • CD
    Chris D.
    10 May 2019 @ 14:48
    Love those "Gun to the head" questions! You have done this a few times I think and always helpful. Promise not to hold you to these, we know it is all about probabilities, right sizing, risk mgt etc.
  • MG
    Miguel G.
    9 May 2019 @ 13:43
    Julian curious about your thoughts since this insider talks things look to possibly be changing. Your buy signal of the 20 sma crossing above the 50 sma looks like it will happen, but with volatility looking to try and create a trend do you see this as a possible short lived trigger with the potential for the 20 sma to cross back below the 50 sma? How would you interpret current developments, thanks in advance.
    • MG
      Miguel G.
      9 May 2019 @ 14:53
      I guess my question is simply should we be looking to buy in to this correction with your buy signal triggering?
  • MW
    Marco W.
    9 May 2019 @ 09:44
    Great discussion! But in any negative scenario not related to Italy (such as trade war, recession, internet bubble burst), I doubt USD index will move: JPY will surge, Euro (funding currency and heavily short by hedge fund) will likely be stable or up. Similar for CHF. If there is reversal of internet carry trade as in Nov-Dec 2018, USD index will drop. But Resl Vision Research just now tweeted good suggestion "Playing long USD positions against some of the commodity FX, hedged with short USDJPY. "
  • JO
    JOHN O.
    8 May 2019 @ 11:47
    Excellent discussion. I'm curious to hear Raoul's comments when he gets back from the GS conference and his meetings with the hedge fund managers in Europe. BTW - I attended Larry McDonald's Bear Traps conference in Miami recently and met another RV contributor, Todd Harrison. It was an informative day and a very fun evening!
  • FD
    Fjodor D.
    8 May 2019 @ 11:13
    Thanks guys for the update. What about an update on the Italian situation - how to play any deterioration there. And one on the US shale oil/gas market - if oil drops sufficiently long enough there will be some interesting share plays there....
  • MP
    Mark P.
    7 May 2019 @ 19:53
    Raoul in Napa! Come by for a vertical tasting of my award winning C Franc out in the vineyard if you have a spare hour or two. Beautiful spot. My thank you for all you do for us via MI and RV. Mark A Price, MD Napa, California
  • RM
    R M.
    7 May 2019 @ 15:45
    Julian: Been following your 20/50 week cross indicator, and has noted it should close the week bullish SPX. Can you comment on backtests of the index and if it works on foreign markets as well? Raoul: You have been really clear on your dollar views, but how would your overall views change, if any, if the DXY just continues range bound for the rest of the year?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      7 May 2019 @ 19:22
      Rangebound is fine. Im interested in the range break. I would also say range bound is probably marginally bullish bonds (low volatility carry) and marginally bullish stocks (same). Strong dollar is very bullish bonds and negative world growth and hence eventually US stocks (but they our perform ROW). Weak dollar is negative bonds, bullish equities with ROW outperforming, along with commodities