Comments
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RKJust an idea for playing dollar strength: long USDZAR here above 14.1. It’s basically a US vs “shithole” country theme.
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VGRaoul - appreciate your specific recommendation on Eurodollars. Thanks in advance
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CDLove those "Gun to the head" questions! You have done this a few times I think and always helpful. Promise not to hold you to these, we know it is all about probabilities, right sizing, risk mgt etc.
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MGJulian curious about your thoughts since this insider talks things look to possibly be changing. Your buy signal of the 20 sma crossing above the 50 sma looks like it will happen, but with volatility looking to try and create a trend do you see this as a possible short lived trigger with the potential for the 20 sma to cross back below the 50 sma? How would you interpret current developments, thanks in advance.
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MWGreat discussion! But in any negative scenario not related to Italy (such as trade war, recession, internet bubble burst), I doubt USD index will move: JPY will surge, Euro (funding currency and heavily short by hedge fund) will likely be stable or up. Similar for CHF. If there is reversal of internet carry trade as in Nov-Dec 2018, USD index will drop. But Resl Vision Research just now tweeted good suggestion "Playing long USD positions against some of the commodity FX, hedged with short USDJPY. "
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JOExcellent discussion. I'm curious to hear Raoul's comments when he gets back from the GS conference and his meetings with the hedge fund managers in Europe. BTW - I attended Larry McDonald's Bear Traps conference in Miami recently and met another RV contributor, Todd Harrison. It was an informative day and a very fun evening!
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FDThanks guys for the update. What about an update on the Italian situation - how to play any deterioration there. And one on the US shale oil/gas market - if oil drops sufficiently long enough there will be some interesting share plays there....
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MPRaoul in Napa! Come by for a vertical tasting of my award winning C Franc out in the vineyard if you have a spare hour or two. Beautiful spot. My thank you for all you do for us via MI and RV. Mark A Price, MD Napa, California
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RMJulian: Been following your 20/50 week cross indicator, and has noted it should close the week bullish SPX. Can you comment on backtests of the index and if it works on foreign markets as well? Raoul: You have been really clear on your dollar views, but how would your overall views change, if any, if the DXY just continues range bound for the rest of the year?