Insider Talks – October 2018

Published on
October 7th, 2018
Duration
24 minutes

Insider Talks – October 2018

Featuring Raoul Pal, Julian Brigden

Published on: October 7th, 2018 • Duration: 24 minutes

The pressure is building in Asia and Europe. Raoul and Julian cover the key markets, events, and indicators we all need to watch in the coming weeks. Filmed on 3rd Oct.

Comments

  • LD
    Lance D.
    20 October 2018 @ 18:16
    whats the best thing to watch for to identify that the pressure is ratcheting up on the china relations ? is it the currency going through that 7.oo level? if not what . cheers
  • HO
    H2 O.
    12 October 2018 @ 15:27
    Also need an update on eurozone sovereign debt. The Italy hysteria increasingly looks wrong. Convergence of Italian and say France sovereign spreads looks like a winner. France's private debt levels have been rising and it is running a deficit 40 bps ABOVE Italy. There are others that look more exposed than Italy to a reversal, yet Italian sov spreads and CDS at what, 7-8x bunds? Doesn't make sense.
    • JB
      Julian B. | Contributor
      14 October 2018 @ 22:26
      Hi H2 O …..Long term, your point re France/Italy is very valid. As for Italy, in general while logic would suggest that the European Commission would be stupid to pick a fight over a 2.4% of GDP deficit, stranger things have happened. We will see post the 15th when they report back on the Italian budget. As we discussed, in the August Meeting of Minds, we are watching 3yr BTP yields as a signal of stress. If 3% breaks we are heading to 6% quickly and the s*** will hit the fan
    • HO
      H2 O.
      15 October 2018 @ 03:55
      Thanks very much for the reply. Added a 3y btp alert.
  • YJ
    Yvonne J.
    7 October 2018 @ 12:22
    Loved your newest video but wondering what ETF you would recommend to short Asia. Thanks!
    • LD
      Lance D.
      7 October 2018 @ 17:59
      MCHI is a broad asia...... there is a lot of etfs covering Asia..... EWJ is japan EDIO indonesia but look into it because i am not sure if these are the best etf's
    • YJ
      Yvonne J.
      8 October 2018 @ 12:19
      Thanks LD but let me clarify, I am looking for inverse ETFs.
    • BS
      Bernie S.
      8 October 2018 @ 19:22
      Two China inverse ETFs by Direxion are CHAD (China A shares, 1X) and Yang (FTSE China, 3X). Good luck.
    • LD
      Lance D.
      9 October 2018 @ 12:46
      Sorry Yvonne, it would be an inverse you needed my mistake. LOL imagine
    • HH
      Hubert H.
      11 October 2018 @ 06:52
      EUM short emerging markets altogether?
  • RM
    R M.
    10 October 2018 @ 20:19
    The most important message received from MI is that the post WW2 world order is radically shifting, and the US - China trade partnership of the last 30 years is over. The investing implications will be enormous. So please Julian and Raoul, keep the focus here, and provide us with updates on investing accordingly. Thanks!
  • HO
    H2 O.
    9 October 2018 @ 03:33
    Would love to hear a conversation about the disinflationary bust scenario, involving a strong USD and sharply higher rates. The US is running big deficits at record low unemployment, and is getting ready to expand the running deficits even more with infra before the cycle winds down, automatic stabilizers kick in, and the deficit goes even higher. Also assume that the trade deficit balloons as well because of USD. If capital exits the US, rates go higher, high-yield blows up, consumers get spooked, etc.... No reason for external capital to return to the bond market until govies or high-quality corporates are much cheaper.
  • PS
    Patrick S.
    7 October 2018 @ 19:21
    Please publish the date of this recording. Was it in September? There were some very interesting moves in the global markets to the week ending October 5. Cheers
    • RE
      Raymond E.
      7 October 2018 @ 21:44
      Agreed. Given all that has been happening of late, knowing when this was actually recorded would help.
    • MB
      Markus B.
      8 October 2018 @ 13:47
      Recording date could have been the 3rd of October; Julian mentioned the ADP employment report published that day which was the 3rd.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      8 October 2018 @ 23:58
      Sadly, its not always possible Julian was in our NYC studio so we could film using cameras as opposed to on computers as we both travel so much.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      9 October 2018 @ 00:06
      Sorry, that was for question above!
  • WM
    Will M.
    8 October 2018 @ 10:41
    Julian had previously said that 30 Year bonds yields could "blow higher" if the 30 year exceeded 3.25% ( hit 3.35% week close 10/5). Raoul had previously said rates could decline as long as the 10 Year "does not exceed" the 2013 high of 3.006%. (hit 3.19% week close 10/5). Julian said if TLT falls below 116.5 it would support his rising rate thesis. It just hit 114.8. Feels like the chart of truth is about to be reversed????
  • BD
    Bryan D.
    8 October 2018 @ 02:51
    Seeing stories today of Italy pivoting to China to be part of Belt Road Initiative. This likely means the EU will have to come to the table in some way for Italy otherwise accept more Chinese influence on the continent.
  • PG
    Paul G.
    8 October 2018 @ 02:34
    Would be awesome to be able to get transcript fordownload like many of the RV TV vids
  • BK
    Bruce K.
    7 October 2018 @ 20:10
    Kudos for upping the production quality by "getting out from behind your desks" and abandoning your webcams! Vastly better audio quality and more engaging video format. Small tweaks, wonderful impact.
    • DB
      Daniel B.
      7 October 2018 @ 22:06
      Second this, great quality second to being in the same location. Especially love the poster behind Raoul, which is suspect is your “we know f*** about f***” slogan?