Episode Summary

The Interview - Turkish Lira: A Recipe for Disaster?

Michael Nicoletos, CIO and co-founder of Appletree Capital, is joined by John Floyd, head of macro strategies at Record Currency Management, to analyze the mounting pressures on the Turkish Lira as well as other emerging market (EM) currencies. Floyd breaks down his bearish thesis on the Turkish Lira (TRY), citing Turkey's deeply negative real rates, dwindling FX reserves, and a banking sector deeply indebted to foreign creditors on a dollar- or euro-denominated basis. Floyd and Nicoletos then discuss the knock-on effects of a Turkish Lira collapse as so many European banks (especially Spanish ones) are heavily exposed to Turkey. Lastly, Floyd shares with Nicoletos the various trades to express this view.