RV Blog Investing The Game of Investing, Vol. 33

The Game of Investing, Vol. 33

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This Week…

We’re diving into the Exponential Age opportunity and what it means for investors. 

From the rise of humanoids and AI companions to the emerging space economy and next-generation power, technological innovations are reshaping our world as we know it. 

That reality may feel overwhelming — but rather than ignoring the cataclysmic shift, it’s up to us to understand the Exponential Age so we can ride the long-term secular waves to profitability and success. 

Luckily, Real Vision co-founder and CEO Raoul Pal says there are “countless ways to invest in this historic change… It’s the biggest opportunity set of our lifetime.” 

In this issue, we’ll cover 2 things: 

  • The formula that defines Raoul’s “Everything Code” thesis and sets the stage for Exponential Age investing. 
  • How to position yourself for one of the biggest secular shifts in history. 

Let’s get to it.

Welcome to the Game

Welcome to The Game of Investing, a bi-weekly newsletter bringing you “aha” moments and actionable lessons from Real Vision experts. No matter your level of expertise, markets are tough — which is why we all have to put in the work. Ultimately, the game of investing is a competition with yourself. Our mission is to help you navigate the path to success. Prepare to level up.

LEVEL 1  — The Magic Formula 

For long-term investors, Raoul believes that focusing on the secular trends of demographics, productivity (including technology growth), and debt growth is key to understanding how the business cycle will perform. 

  • GDP growth = Population growth + Productivity + Debt growth

This is the “magic formula” that Raoul laid out in his “Everything Code” explainer last year (free to watch). 

The “Everything Code” is a framework that has helped Raoul understand the current macro landscape and make accurate predictions about where monetary policy, technology, and cryptocurrencies are headed. 

The global economy depends on GDP to grow, but with both population growth and productivity plummeting globally — while private and government debts balloon — solving for productivity is the only way to ensure a prosperous, functioning future economy. 

🔑 Raoul believes he has found a pattern of systematic fiat currency debasement that global central banks are causing due to their monetization of growing debts, and that debasement creates a new opportunity set for investors. 

That’s where technology comes into play… 


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LEVEL 2 — A Major Secular Shift

The Exponential Age is the idea that a combination of technologies like AI, blockchain infrastructure, quantum computing, and green energy are nearing mass adoption simultaneously, bringing rapid and life-changing innovations that could increase productivity and catapult GDP (and markets) higher.

This could bring explosive opportunities for investors who buy into long-term secular themes.

A brief aside: understanding your individual time horizon and goals is key to investing.

Over the long-term, Raoul is targeting several specific sectors: 

  • Base layer infrastructure — Data networks like Starlink, 5G, and 6G technologies.
  • Quantum computing — “Everyone from Google to foreign governments are working on this,” says Raoul. “A breakthrough is coming.”
  • Artificial intelligence — “It competes with humans… but it also enhances our productivity.”
  • Crypto and blockchain — “Digital asset layer that will allow everything to move around.”
  • Semiconductor chips — “The processors that will power it all.”

If Raoul’s thesis on the debt-driven business cycle is correct, it would mean that liquidity will continue flowing into global markets as Exponential Age technologies explode.

In other words, next technological revolution is here — and it’s changing the way we live, work… and invest.

More From the Exponentialist

Co-created by Raoul Pal and David Mattin, the Exponentialist is an independent tech-focused research service designed to document the fastest and most powerful period of change in human history.

From an Exponential Age portfolio basket and weekly Q&As to longform monthly thinkpieces, community events, macro coverage, and other exclusive benefits, the Exponentialist is a good fit for investors who are deeply curious about what the technological revolution will mean for their lives (and their portfolios).

Learn more about how to become a member right here.

Next Time

Thanks for reading. In our next issue, we’ll take a holistic look at the options market. 

See you then.

Have feedback on The Game of Investing? We’d love to hear it. Just email us at essential@realvision.com to share your thoughts. 

The Game of Investing Newsletter…

…a bi-weekly newsletter where you learn from investing pros about how this game actually works.

Because learning about finance shouldn’t be boring.